Background
A leading European retailer was navigating a structural consumer shift from more profitable in-store sales to online purchasing. While media activity was partly deployed to counteract this trend, the business needed a clearer understanding of how its overall marketing investments were performing to optimize spend and drive profitable growth.
Key business questions they wanted answers to included: the role of media in driving total sales; how that differed between online and offline channels; and which specific campaign types were the most effective.
The retailer also wanted to quantify the long-term revenue ROI of its media investment to make strategic decisions with confidence.
Solution
We implemented a comprehensive annual marketing mix modeling (MMM) program. Our approach involved building 10 separate models to provide a granular view of performance, splitting the analysis by online and in-store sales across five key product categories. This allowed us to measure the contribution of each media channel and campaign initiative, going beyond paid media to include the full scope of paid, owned, and earned levers.
A cornerstone of our approach was a highly collaborative consulting process. We ran a full-day workshop with a wide range of stakeholders from across the client’s business, including media, PR, social, search, and commercial finance, alongside their media and creative agency partners, to run through insights from the MMM.
This cross-functional format enabled discussion based on a holistic view of marketing performance and resulted in forward-looking recommendations grounded in practical execution. The retailer’s Head of Brand and Advertising described the workshop as “the best day of the year.”
To further embed this data-informed approach, we trained the retailer’s media agency to use our decision-making platform, Gain Theory Interactive, for daily planning and optimization.
Results
Our most recent analysis confirmed that a 9% year-on-year increase in media investment had delivered an 11% growth in long-term media-driven revenue, proving that revenue growth outstripped the growth in investment. This increased overall marketing ROI by 3% over the same period and generated an additional £106m in long-term retail sales value.
This success was a direct result of the client acting on recommendations from the previous year’s MMM. A key driver was the decision to increase investment in social media. Following a blueprint we developed for how to deploy the extra budget, this strategy was validated by the latest results: the social media investment was responsible for £66m of the total £106m uplift.
Looking forward, our analysis also identified a significant new opportunity: by rebalancing the media mix away from linear TV (which is showing signs of saturation) and into VOD and radio over the next 12 months, the retailer can unlock a further £90m in long-term revenue and improve ROI by an additional 9%.
increase in revenue
