Declining confidence in marketing measurement is one of the worrying but unsurprising themes I’ve read about as we start 2026. Take Forrester’s most recent predictions report for B2C marketing as one example. It forecast that confidence in marketing measurement will fall by 7% this year – from a relatively healthy starting point of 79%. The global research firm cited the rise of open-source marketing mix modelling (MMM) methodologies and data transparency concerns as reasons for the decline.
Why marketers don’t rate their measurement approach
I decided to undertake a bit of my own research on this topic while hosting a recent ANA webinar, ‘Next Generation MMM: 5 Moves to Drive Confidence & Growth in 2026’.
When I asked webinar attendees if their CEO/CFO had asked them to prove marketing ROI in the last 90 days, 88% said yes. However, in answer to a follow up question, only 12% said they were confident that their current measurement approach captures marketing’s full value. By full value, I don’t just mean clicks and conversions, but also critical aspects like brand equity, market share gains, and long-term sales and profit growth.
It’s clear there’s a confidence gap to bridge, which is why I was keen to share five things that marketers can do to make their MMM programs deliver more value. Marketers are increasingly turning to MMM as a central plank of their measurement efforts, but I know from experience that many marketers do not use it to its full potential.
Five ways to capture more marketing value by improving your MMM
Here are the five steps I recommend you take to increase the effectiveness of your MMM.
1. Balance speed with actionability: The MMM market is growing with the arrival of faster, cheaper, instant offerings from AI- and SaaS-driven providers. While technology is fantastic for processing data at speed, running models at scale, and generating reports quickly, human expertise remains irreplaceable. For example, we need experts to interpret complex statistical models and translate them into actionable language for the rest of the marketing org and the C-suite.
My recommendation is to think carefully about your organization and its measurement needs. If you work in a complex business or sector, have incomplete data, require your MMM to be integrated with other measurement techniques, or presented to a wide range of stakeholders, then I recommend you choose a solution that offers speed, experienced consultants, and transparency.
2. Prove long-term value, not just short-term ROI: Recent research from the IPA found that while marketing ROI has increased by 4% since the COVID pandemic, net profit generation by those same organizations has fallen by 11%. This highlights a critical oversight: optimizing solely for short-term ROI (i.e. efficiency) often neglects the long-term, brand-building activities that are crucial for sustainable growth (i.e. effectiveness).
My recommendation is to always map your marketing KPIs to your broader business KPIs – think profit, market share, incremental sales, and brand value – not just campaign ROI. Marketing ROI is important, but it needs to be just one KPI and not the most important one that you track and aim to improve on.
3. Go beyond media-only measurement: I asked another key question during the webinar: “What percentage of your business is driven by non-media factors like pricing, distribution, promotions, sponsorships, or competitor activity?” While some had good estimates, the point I wanted to make is that your business doesn’t operate in a media vacuum, and neither should your measurement.
My recommendation is that you ask your MMM provider which external variables are being factored into your models. You want to ensure your MMM program captures the full complexity of your business.
4. Don’t strive for perfection, especially when it comes to data: The quest for perfection is a luxury few businesses can afford. This is particularly true for data as it often paralyses progress. The most effective marketers leverage the data they have today and build a pragmatic roadmap for continuous data improvement.
My recommendation is to use benchmarks, ideally those at a category-, brand-, and market position-level. They can serve three purposes: to provide directional insights, such as high-level budget decisions, at speed; to validate the data you have already; to help inform what data you need as you look to fill gaps and identify opportunities.
5. Get insights into ‘what might happen next?’: In today’s volatile geopolitical and economic landscape, history is not always the most reliable predictor for the future. The power of an advanced MMM program lies in its ability to stress-test your strategy with various future scenarios. What if gas prices rise again? What if a competitor doubles their store count? Knowing the potential impact of these scenarios on your business allows you to respond with confidence.
My recommendation is to embed approaches like scenario planning and war-gaming into your measurement program. Scenario planning can be used to determine how and when to invest a fixed budget over a fixed time period, for example. War-gaming is a strategic tool that helps you understand the “big picture” risks and opportunities affecting your category or sector.
